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September 24, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The September FOMC meeting is emblematic of the Powell Fed so far: the rate decision has been so carefully broadcast as to be nearly moot, and investors are mostly focused on the outlook for future rate decisions. Read more

September 7, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The August jobs report showed numerous signs of normalization and late-cycle dynamics. There were the higher wages of course, but also slower trend payroll growth, a leveling off of the unemployment rate, and "involuntary" part-time work and other... Read more

August 3, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Despite the mixed headlines, the July jobs report was a strong one. Various details and simple adjustments tell the tale, from specific industries -- notably manufacturing -- to wages. There was no sign that trade tensions are slowing job growth,... Read more

July 31, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Although most of the traditional data points leading up to the nonfarm payrolls report aren’t out yet, what little we have – including iCIMS’ own MHI – suggests it will be  a strong report, at least for the establishment survey. Here's what to look... Read more

July 6, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Financial markets declared the June jobs report to be a "Goldilocks" one and promptly returned to their summer slumber, troubled only by fears of escalating trade conflict. That label is only a minor exaggeration. From a trader's perspective, this... Read more

June 30, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

In today’s tight labor market, employers are digging deep to bring in traditionally disadvantaged groups – the long-term unemployed and those with less education, among others – but when it comes to geography, it’s still very much a case of winners... Read more

June 1, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The May employment report was less notable for the size of any particular upside surprise than the consistency of its upside surprises and the good news throughout. The rise in employment across the establishment and household surveys was on roughly... Read more

May 31, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Given all the ink that’s been spilled over the debate on skills gaps and the relationship between job openings and hires, it’s surprising how little air time some basic facts have received. If you’ve followed this debate, you’ve no doubt seen some... Read more

May 4, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The April jobs report was nothing if not mixed, with most of the eye-catching action in the household survey. Payroll growth seemed to return to medium-term trends, while the unemployment rate broke to an 18-year low amid some conflicting signals... Read more
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