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May 4, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The April jobs report was nothing if not mixed, with most of the eye-catching action in the household survey. Payroll growth seemed to return to medium-term trends, while the unemployment rate broke to an 18-year low amid some conflicting signals... Read more

April 27, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Amid all the hot takes on the latest wage inflation data, it's easy to proclaim "supply and demand still drive wages" and move on to the next topic -- but to leave it at that would miss a valuable lesson about the labor market. The first quarter... Read more

April 6, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Far from the snoozer that many observers expected, the March jobs report featured a number of surprises. Like the February report, this one deflated the main narrative to emerge from its predecessor – in this case, that job growth was accelerating,... Read more

March 30, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Here's a data point to keep your eye on in the March jobs report: job leavers. After several years of scouring for alternative measures of labor market conditions, one might expect this measure to have gained more prominence, but it remains deeply... Read more

March 21, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The March FOMC was a quiet turning of the guard, and by all signs, that's exactly what the Fed wanted. This was Chair Powell's first meeting in his new leadership role, and it delivered few enough surprises for the financial markets to remain calm. Read more

March 19, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The March FOMC meeting marks the real start of the Powell Fed, and fittingly, it will be closely watched mostly for what it suggests about the outlook. Still, this is a big step not only because it is the first hike of the Powell Fed, but also... Read more

March 9, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

There are no two-handed economists when it comes to the February employment report: strong job growth and a complete pullback on inflation fears make for a "Goldilocks" outlook for financial markets. At the same time, this report returns the Fed to... Read more

February 28, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The much-anticipated leadership transition at the Federal Reserve is finally underway, and that, along with recent economic data, has already started to change debates about the U.S. economy. Between rising wages, rebounding inflation, and incipient... Read more

February 2, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

All anyone really was looking for in the January employment report was wage growth, and for once, we got it. The headline numbers were all very strong, and the details were too – with a few exceptions. The decline in the average workweek meant that... Read more
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